If you follow the news regarding the housing market, you’d think the sky is not only falling but will fail to exist once this market passes us by. National headlines are designed to make you do one thing: click the link. They cannot sell advertising space on the site without Google metrics to support their numbers. How do you get numbers? Clickbait. Now, let’s dive into our local market with some sense of a rational approach.

Certainly our volume is down compared to one year ago. Using August 2022 data, pending sales were down 24% from August 2021. That is the national figure. Houston saw an 11% decline year over year. You will also find plenty of stories indicating that housing markets are overvalued nationwide. Well, of the 8 most overvalued markets in the country, 6 are located in California, and the remaining 2 are located in Florida. Of the top 20 overvalued markets in the nation, only 2 are located in Texas and they are Austin and San Antonio. Per HAR, for the Houston market on a year-to-date basis through August, existing home sales for 2022 are down 6 percent, while new home sales through the MLS are actually up 9 percent. The uptick in new home sales could be attributed to more homebuilders listing their inventory in the MLS in this market compared to the overheated market of 2021.

Currently, Houston has 23.5% LESS inventory than we did in 2019. So, while mortgage rates may be rising, inventory levels are nowhere near the point to create a market crash. Let’t not forget that in 2006, the last housing boom on record, mortgage rates were hovering around 7%. Recency bias will tell us that today’s rates seem high. But, as we look at history we may change our opinion in this regard.

Now, if you are a seller in today’s market, you will not be competing with as many properties this time of year as you will in the spring of 2023. Certainly, there are some unknowns to evaluate and weigh against what you are wanting to accomplish. I’ve discussed in previous posts that I love the fall season of home selling. Why? There is less competition and the majority of people are in a positive and happy mindset during the holiday season. If you are considering buying or selling, I’d be happy to discuss your goals and how aligning yourself with a real estate sales professional such as myself is beneficial, especially during a market like we are experiencing today.

Please remember that real estate markets are hyper local. During this piece, I discussed the Houston market as a whole. The markets that I track (The Woodlands, Woodforest, High Meadow Estates, Crown Ranch, and surrounding Montgomery County) are showing exceptional resiliency when it comes to valuation and demand. There is sincere interest in wonderful communities, highly rated schools, and proximity to employment hubs as well as dining and shopping options. The national headlines will never tell the true story of your local market. That is what I am here to do!